Part 0: Reflecting

• As part of Manifold Markets: Seed Round Memo, we outlined a plan for things we wanted to accomplish. How did we do?

Part 1: Projects Brainstorm

What are our large areas of investments over the next year?

• [s] Overall thoughts

• Mechanisms

  • Prediction markets

    • Good multiple choice
    • Good numeric
    • Date range

  • Stonks, Certs / Stonks

    • ACX Grants: Initial Cert Offering
    • Destiny/Dan Stock

  • Other contract types

    • Perpetual swaps or
    • Perp swaps/Continuous resolution
    • Paid polls
    • Bountied Questions
    • Manifold for Bounties
    • Manifold Grants
    • Metaculus-style distribution aggregating
    • Loans? Lotteries? Kickstarter?

• Mobile

  • Maniswipe

• Real-time betting Faster Bet Loops

  • [c] +1
  • [A] Note: Manifold is still missing a compelling real-time experience, eg Twitch betting bot
    • CF ChatGPT - people get instant feedback that they then share with others “look how cool this thing is”
  • [s] I believe this is compelling but most of the use-cases seem clustered in sports and e-sports.
    • The former is too competitive; maybe we still have a shot with our Twitch bot
      • [c] disagree with “too competitive” - it also means people are used to sports betting and those users are familiar with odds
    • What other groups/events would benefit from real-time UX?
  • [J] Skeptical. It’s very rare that Manifold currently gets a lot of bets in real time. That’s because the use cases are actually rare.
    • We should try to get this kind of traffic before building out infra to handle it (expensive in dev time)
    • [A] I’m thinking it’s less in “infra” and more about “frontend” & “use cases” like Stephen mentioned