COVID-19's Ripple Effect: Mapping Out The Societal & Economic Consequences

Database Updated 10.45am 5/4/2020

The fallout from COVID-19 feels overwhelming and infinite. I'm simultaneously frozen in fear of the short term effects — the havoc this is wreaking on our world's population, that it could impact my loved ones — and of future, long-term impacts. COVID-19 is a global earthquake, and we have to start bracing for the tsunami that follows. Our society's most integral elements are also our most vulnerable: the education system, small businesses, healthcare, and more. Even after we get through this, the fabric of our economy and society will change. So, I started mapping out the consequences in a database. As odd as it sounds, this attempt to bring some order to the madness swirling in my head helps me feel calmer.

I only have one singular perspective, though, and can't possibly think of every consequence. The below also started with thoughts from my wife, who is a family psychologist, and our 11- and 15-year-old children. We then opened it up to our personal networks to get as many inputs as possible.

My hope is that while we're doing our civic duty in quarantine, we can use some of that time to understand the fundamental changes that will take place when we come out and think about solutions to the new problems we'll face. Some of the database below also has small potential silver linings, like a reduction in vaping and an improvement of our environment. These small positives don't come close to outweighing the negatives, but I think it's important to think about them, too, and how we can keep the momentum going for those few positives.

Visual Build of Selected Impacts

COVID Impact

Life After COVID_Final_May 21.pdf

<aside> 💡 Now, we are opening the database up to you. The more voices we have here, the better we can prepare for what's to come after. If you want to contribute your thoughts, please email us your additional ideas, preferably in the template provided below - then send to mjones@science-inc.com.

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SUBMIT YOUR CONTENT HERE

<aside> 💡 As a side note, from my personal experience, older members of our family seem to think this current situation is no big deal, while I am finding younger people experiencing this current global state see it as highly serious and long lasting. I wonder if older experienced humans see this like a "moment in time" that eventually is smoothed over, yet younger people in life feel its severity greater.

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社会距離戦略（Social Distancing）を実践する欧米では、時代を先取りするインキュベータやアントレプレナーが全く新しい生活様式の世界を見据えて、社会、経済、政治、教育、医療、文化など様々な分野において、新しい財・サービスの企画に取り組んでいます。今は平時では取り組めない社会実験をするための絶好の機会でもあり、水面下でPoCに取り組み、新事業の基盤作りが進んでいます。

弊社のビジネスパートナーであるScience (ロサンゼルスのインキュベーター)のMike Jones CEOは、想定される「ポスト・コロナウィルス世界」を“COVID-19's Ripple Effect: Mapping Out The Societal & Economic Consequences”（以下URLの通り）という内容でまとめています。

https://www.notion.so/COVID-19-s-Ripple-Effect-Mapping-Out-The-Societal-Economic-Consequences-ee320975f0d64cbc8a6c9df92b14348b

Michael Jones (Science, Inc.): COVID-19's Ripple Effect: Mapping Out The Societal & Economic Consequences

We are all in this together, and we'll have to work together to get through it.

<aside> 🔑 Strong additional DB of Post COVID impact here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/17YkH4kc63t7JI7JJZR6i3-iebJd7kfRAzAK_ssl8bt4/preview

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<aside> 🔑 Great resource shared to me by @ezyjules from @gonsanchezs referencing Impact on European Tech - thanks for the reference! Link here!

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Post Pandemic Impact on Education

We believe impact to education will be one of the largest across all sectors. We believe that certain families will choose not to send their children back to school for a variety of reasons, that will drive schools to have fewer students, lowering budgets and pushing down an already stressed educational system. The impact here may result in growth of homeschool programs and alternative schooling systems.

"I think I like homeschooling better than normal school - I think I am learning more."

"My kid seems happier, no more bulling, no more social issues."

Summary:

Not all students will return back to school
Some students will continue to homeschool
Some students may enter the work force early
Some students will permanently drop out of the education system

Data

Post Pandemic Impact on Retail & Brands & Commerce

If online commerce was one of the first blows to traditional real estate and retail, this may be the second hit. Even after the Mailbu fires, with the city effectively shut down for 60 days, many of our local restaurants and service providers did not return to business. Many of these storefront vacancies have not been filled even after a year.

"Our winter season is being returned to us, and the spring season probably won't even get shipped out. With retail being shut down - I don't think our brand can survive."

From my perspective as a startup investor the current process to develop and launch a retail storefront startup is very expensive, slow and complicated. If retail real estate holders want to attract new breeds of businesses that will attract the generation Z consumer, we need a much faster way to onboard retail offerings that don't involve 6 month lease negotiations with 5 year leases. Those days are done.

Summary:

Retail-focused brands will suffer and sadly many will die
Retail storefront landlords and owners need to reevaluate how they work with new tenants and businesses
Gyms may be among some of the hardest hit

Classpass Reservation Volume

Classpass Reservation Volume

Data