<aside> 💡 Date : 2021-12-01 FY2022Q2 = 2021Q3 ; Q3 = Aug. - Oct.

Full Transcript Earnings Call Slide Investor Presentation Slide Financial Statement

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Comment

  1. Revenue QoQ +6.7% ; YoY +42.2% : 優於Guidance Backlog QoQ +7.2% ; YoY +32.0%
  2. 先附上季comment

FY2022Q1 Comment 營收相關指標進入高原期並且小幅下滑,公司當然開始打預防針。不過隨著未來成長動能轉向monthly SaaS,這些數據遲早會衰退。

FY2022開始將營收項目從SaaS改成Elastic Cloud。目前Elastic Cloud占比33%,Monthly Cloud約16%。分析師給了一季觀察後,搭配這季非常平緩的guidance,不斷質疑公司的成長性。 CFO不斷強調營收就是檢視Elastic最適當的metric,calculated billings與RPO會因為很多因素產生波動。然而,CFO說營收是最重要的指標,確給出QoQ零成長的FY2022Q3 guidance,財報後股價重挫其實蠻合理的。

  1. 公司沒有說明營收疲軟的原因。轉往Monthly Cloud後,導致calculated billings與RPO成長放緩,此部分可以理解,上一季分析師也暫時買單。但是,公司才說營收是最重要的觀察指標,卻給出下一季營收持平的guidance,原因是季節性or短期因素?公司沒有明確表示。
  2. guidance卻調高了FY2022全年的營收,假如成真,預期下下季(FY2022Q4)營收為220m。進入FY2023後,如果季成長仍維持6%,可以達成公司長線目標全年營收1b,但是這也只是平低標而已,並沒有擊敗任何預期
  3. 比較明確的方向是公司大幅招兵買馬,增加許多Sales and Marketing,如果能在接下來幾季反應在營收上,才有機會再受到青睞。
  4. 長線而言,個人仍看好Elastic成為開放平台(Elastic as a Service),目前是三合一的platform且未來可以整合連結更多功能,變成易擴充的開源雲端平台。達成的手段就是靠Search,至於其餘核心功能,看起來公司打算靠持續併購。
  5. 本季併購Optimyze,是為了上雲後面對更複雜的系統。

Operation

Market Overview

【90%以上的資料都是unstructured】

IDC estimates that by 2025, we will be generating 480 exabytes of data per day. And as much as 90% of that data is unstructured

【TAM : 70b】

Our total addressable market is north of $70 billion, and we think it reflects the expansion and applicability of our software, and we're very, very excited about it. Together with our cloud growth, we think that we're solving our customers' needs every single day. And that's very exciting.

【Strategy : 三合一的platform且未來可以靠Search再整合更多功能,變成易擴充的開源雲端平台】

Enterprise Search, the ability to add a search box to your website; Observability, the ability to monitor your cloud workloads as well as your on-prem workloads and infrastructure; and Security, the ability to detect and prevent cyber threats, all of them are markets that are in the midst of convergence, yet expansion that I, to be honest, haven't seen over the last few years that I've been engaging in them. So that I remain very excited. And the combination of these 3 highly applicable solutions across verticals and across geographies delivered by cloud makes me optimistic about the future.