Try this research prompt the next time someone announced an “AI layoff.”
Analyze recent tech layoff announcement for [COMPANY NAME] from [DATE RANGE]
Retrieve and synthesize:
1. Official company statements on layoff rationale
2. SEC filings showing capital expenditure changes in last 2 quarters
3. Recent quarterly earnings calls transcript excerpts
4. Revenue breakdown by business unit from last earnings report
5. Industry analyst reports on [COMPANY]'s competitive pressures
Compare stated reasons against financial realities:
- CapEx allocation patterns showing where investment is increasing
- Which business units received cuts vs which received increased funding
- Wall Street analyst commentary on company's primary revenue drivers
- Supply/demand signals in company's core market
Assess narrative coherence:
- Are stated reasons internally consistent with each other?
- Does technology/capability claimed exist in production today or is it aspirational?
- Do financial pressures on core business explain timing and scale of cuts?
- Are cut units peripheral investments or strategic priorities?
- What trade-offs does this company face to maintain margins?
Output structure:
STATED RATIONALE: [company's official explanation]
FINANCIAL CONTEXT: [revenue sources, CapEx changes, margin pressures]
ACTUAL PATTERN: [where cuts happened vs where investment increased]
NARRATIVE COHERENCE: [internal contradictions, logical consistency analysis]
WHAT THE DATA SUGGESTS: [pattern explanation based on financial evidence]
Sources: prioritize SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, Bloomberg WSJ Reuters financial analysis. Limit to sources published after [DATE].
You are analyzing tech layoff research data. Your job is to think critically about what's actually happening versus what's being claimed.
Here's the research gathered:
[PASTE PERPLEXITY OUTPUT]
Now think through this systematically:
1. COUNTERFACTUAL TESTING
What would we expect to see if the stated rationale were true? What would we expect to see if it were false? Which pattern does the actual data match?
For each stated reason:
- What evidence would confirm this explanation?
- What evidence would contradict it?
- What do we actually observe?
2. ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS
Generate 3-5 plausible alternative explanations for this layoff pattern that fit the financial data better than the stated rationale. For each:
- What would motivate this decision?
- What evidence supports it?
- What evidence contradicts it?
3. INTERNAL LOGIC CHECK
Walk through the company's stated logic step by step. Where does it break down? What assumptions are being made that don't hold up? What's being conveniently omitted?
4. THE MOST LIKELY STORY
Based on all evidence, construct the narrative that best explains:
- Why now (timing)
- Why these units (selection)
- Why this scale (magnitude)
- What trade-offs management is actually making
- What pressures they're responding to
Be specific about what you're confident in versus what's speculation. Note where evidence is thin or contradictory.
Write this as clear analytical prose, not bullet points. Make it convincing but intellectually honest about uncertainties.