• not working on it full-time
• 2 parts
  • growth on platforms (twitter, etc)
    • focusing more on this right now
    • non linear — most growth comes from a few tweets. most current followers have come from a few viral tweets
    • in january, posted every 2nd day
    • the posts that don’t go viral have much less conversion
    • can you make posts go viral?
      • hard to predict ahead of time, can be like a lottery-ticket type thing. ~1/14 would go 10x impressions, could just be trying to get it out there
      • alternative hypothesis: go for really high “supply/demand imbalance.” unique perspective, etc. wagner, superconductor
        • high quality in terms of storytelling
        • hard to control the supply/demand imbalance, but can control the quality of the
  • website
    • this is usually more resource constriained. requires a lot of work, not sure if he has technical skills for it
• working on 2 really high quality videos
  • substack post, twitter threads, youtube, instagram, etc
  • first time making vids
  • does BRT want to go the swift model? [m] no, want to be a frequent poster
  • one on AI, one on weight loss
  • once you’ve made a video, you’ve figured out the vertical — can become a series of videos
• [s] what made you want to do videos?
  • [m]
    1. content is generally moving away from text & toward video. there’s loads of alpha particularly in these communities wrt video — lots of forecasters who want to make detailed blog posts, but fewer ppl who make youtube videos.
       1. a chance to expand onto youtube, but also instagram, facebook, etc
       2. daily odds
       3. idea is to get it out there onto other platforms
    • marketing is “NYT with prediction markets” — but practically, a guy with a laptop
• [s] what’s the profile of a supply/demand imbalance for events?
  • [m] there are these events where you really want numbers ASAP, and don’t need an opinion piece/etc.
    • hasn’t been anything like that this year, but the next time a wagner group/superconductor thing happens, marcel would go back to shitposting
    • do feel like more ppl are quoting prediction markets on twitter for events
    • but, it might be that for the next wagner group/superconductor there will be less alpha for shitposting
    • alpha might be in “here’s an o/v of all of the forecasting/prediction market sphere and what they say.”
    • takes a lot of work! need to integrate them into a coherent story, markets will have different resolution criteria
    • NYT prioritizes narrative, BRT prioritizes the forecasting
• limitations of metaforecast
  • only updates 1nce per day
  • not every market is on metaforecast
• [s] hiring?
  • [m] have thought of it
    • have some money — $4k — but can’t like hire someone with $4k
  • need sufficient money to pay rent, buy food; then would be nice to
  • want to get to the point where marcel is confident that the bottleneck is money
  • want to go to metaculus, ask them if they could give some advice
    • [s] yeah! ask metaculus/manifold/shayne?
      • [m] why not go direct to the source?
        • pure dollar amount. $8million to metaculus is a looooot of money.
        • would want less to be a for-profit company where BRT collects money from your clicks and huge COI, would rather be a trusted news source
        • maybe 5 grantmaking instutitons; don’t get a ton of chances, how do i set myself up for success?
        • want to say “hey, here’s what i’ve been doing”
      • [m]
        • weird rejections: tcowen, from emergent ventures
        • acceptance: lightspeed grants
      • [s] come to manifest?
        • [m] would marcel need to go regardless?