**This is a template for evaluating big decisions.**

*What is the decision*?

**When do you have to finalize the decision?**

**When does the risk profile change if I make no decision?**

**What are all the potential outcomes?**

List at least seven outcomes. The more, the better. The idea is to push yourself to see what else may be an outcome.

Stakes & Probability Table

Apply the 5 Whys to the outcomes*.* Asking the five whys is a process to understand the root cause of a problem. Ask why, then ask why about the why. Us the process to dig deeper and get a better understanding.

Review each outcome and ask, what are the second and third-order outcomes?

Do the second or third-order outcomes create more benefit or cause more damage? Use this insight to determine the stakes.

Donâ€™t stop with what is obvious as an outcome. Challenge yourself to think through what will happen next. Ask if this outcome occurs, then what happens next? There may be a consequence of the outcome that is beneficial.

- Rank the probability of your outcomes
- Estimate stakes for each outcome

**What is the best likely outcome?**

**What is the worst possible outcome?**

*What do you want?*

*What do you fear?*

**Knowledge Gap:**