This is a template for evaluating big decisions.

What is the decision?

When do you have to finalize the decision?

When does the risk profile change if I make no decision?

What are all the potential outcomes?

List at least seven outcomes. The more, the better. The idea is to push yourself to see what else may be an outcome.

Stakes & Probability Table

Apply the 5 Whys to the outcomes*.* Asking the five whys is a process to understand the root cause of a problem. Ask why, then ask why about the why. Us the process to dig deeper and get a better understanding.

Review each outcome and ask, what are the second and third-order outcomes?

Do the second or third-order outcomes create more benefit or cause more damage? Use this insight to determine the stakes.

Don’t stop with what is obvious as an outcome. Challenge yourself to think through what will happen next. Ask if this outcome occurs, then what happens next? There may be a consequence of the outcome that is beneficial.

• Rank the probability of your outcomes
• Estimate stakes for each outcome

What is the best likely outcome?

What is the worst possible outcome?

What do you want?

What do you fear?

Knowledge Gap: