The 2010s made work remote – the 2020s are making work global
Learnings on this Thesis
- There's an opportunity to make hiring truly global
- While the last decade has taken a lot of our workflows remote, we are still working in very local environments – most companies hire national talent, trained in local institutions and with local credentials
- We believe this will be one of the most important changes in the 2020s → a new set of global talent and hiring tools, credentials and training programs that make employment truly global
- Hiring is about assessing fit in complex environments
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Most hiring platforms focus on showcasing skills and experiences that have already been acquired by the candidate
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They end up looking like glorified CVs.
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If the traditionals hiring systems are horses, most new hiring solutions are “faster horses”, not cars.
- Hiring the wrong person is a terribly expensive idea
- When informations is not transparent, networks are the best predictor of success
- Conventional wisdom and old business handbooks say: aptitude tests are the best predictor of success.
- But looking at the actual research, it is clear that:
- Jobs are changing faster than ever, making the effectiveness of these tests shaky.
- The effectiveness of these tests applies mostly to the middle-income jobs in the US more than the economy as a whole, especially high-skill tech jobs.
- Since there's very few ways to quantitatively measure the fit of an employee or their skills, networks and signaling often drive the hire.
- This is terribly advantageous to candidates who come from privileged backgrounds and is absolutely unfair.
- The human match-maker is still the king
- We still haven't found a better way to assess fit than human referrals with enough information on both parties, and we should look for ways to replicate this human process through technology. The issues arise with scale, as no tool has been able to replicate this process successfully.
- Empower the match-maker vs remove them
- We see two approaches to addressing this issue: those who want to augment the power of those human match-makers (e.g. Via by Ondeck, SharpestMinds) and those who want to replicate those actions at scale through technology (Stackraft, Underdog, Skillist). There's probably room for both of them!
- 5 new approaches to hiring
- **Sector focus (**own hiring based on sector-specific considerations - niche newsletters and job boards)
- Kill-the-CV approach (skills-based hiring at scale that substitutes the traditional methods - Torre, Tretar, Underdog)
- Market transparency (better connecting the two sides in hiring - LinkedIn Jobs, Handshake, Via, NewCraft)
- **Coaching (**high involvement in the hiring process through coaching and resources, often selective - HireClub)
- Value-Based Hiring (still very early, but focused on identifying what makes a great human fit - KeyValues)
Market Size
The hiring market is very large – especially when thinking about how diverse it is (from recruiting to staffing to new employment models)
- Global staffing industry is worth $497B in 2020 (Statista)
- The global online recruitment space was worth $28B in 2019 (will grow to $43B in 2027) (Fortune Business).
Future Opportunities
- Referral-based hiring platforms
- Hiring platforms that base the matches on personal recommendations and referals, since humans are still the best decision-makers when it comes to assessing "fit" between employees and firms (which are really complex maximization problems)
- Hiring platforms that get their hands dirty and generate new data on candidates and jobs
- Recruiting platforms like Forage, Contra or Stackcraft create new models by capturing new data from the candidate, which employers then can use to make hiring decisions
- On the opposite end, solutions to hiring tend to fail when they only serve one of the two sides of the table (employers or candidates).
- Some job boards generate great value for employers, but don't provide more than a simple solution to the candidate, and that doesn't really push the needle in any significant way.
Fellows in this Thesis
Untitled Database
Resources
Transcend Newsletter VIII - The Future of Hiring | Transcend Newsletter 2.0 🤝