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🚀 The Book in 3 Sentences

1. Decision process is process how we make decisions, and it shouldn't been examined by the outcome of the decision.
2. A decision process can be seen as a system:
   1. we can use feedback to improve our decision quality.
   2. we set possibility of each decision, so we can easily review these decision and optimise later.
3. a number of strategies can be applied to improve our decision process:
   1. for decision with small penalties, we can try different options in parallel and move on quickly (freeroll);
   2. we aim to make high-quality decisions as frequent as possible, although this is hard to achieve (archer's mind).
   3. hedging can mitigate the risk of bad decisions, and decision stacking is a form of hedging;
   4. premortem can help us to foresee the risks of the bad outcome of a decision and take precaution accordingly.

☘️ How the Book Changed Me

✍️ Top Quotes From the Book

• Why is it so important to have a high-quality decision process? Because there are only two things that determine how your life turns out: luck and the quality of your decisions. You have control over only one of those two things.
• Any decision is, in essence, a prediction about the future.
• When people result, they look at whether the result was good or bad to figure out if the decision was good or bad. (Psychologists call this “outcome bias,” but I prefer the more intuitive term “resulting.”)
• Developing the discipline to separate the quality of the result from the quality of the decision can help you to figure out which decisions are worth repeating and which aren’t.
• In the short-term, for any single decision, there is only a loose relationship between the quality of the decision and the quality of the outcome.
• Instead, the goal is to try to choose the option that will lead to the most favorable range of outcomes.
• Using a Knowledge Tracker reduces hindsight bias by clarifying what you did and didn’t know at the time of the decision. Detailing what you knew and when you knew it helps prevent stuff that revealed itself after the fact from reflexively creeping into the before-the-fact box.
• A lot of experience can be an excellent teacher. A single experience, not so much.
• Advice can be an excellent decision tool as long as you are explicit about your goals and values when you are seeking that advice.
• To figure out whether a decision is good or bad, you need to know not just the things that might reasonably happen and what could be gained or lost, but also the likelihood of each possibility unfolding. That means, to become a better decision-maker, you need to be willing to estimate those probabilities.
• The more willing you are to guess, the more you’ll think about and apply what you know.