(I wrote this little text last summer and thought I'd share)

For me, one of the most interesting studies ever conducted on politics and related fields is Tetlock's study on who's best at predicting complex events in our world (here's a summary article). A complex event could be something like a financial crisis or an outbreak of a war. I read about this study in Enlightenment Now and it is hopeful something I will remember for a long time, as this is how we should be governed and not by ideology.

The basic result of the study was: Ideologic experts (trusting big ideas as Pinker calls it) predict more or less randomly whereas open, Bayesian, humble, non-fatal, highly numerate people make the best predictions. I myself have some ideologies engrained by my parents and peers, but Pinker's mindset and particularly Tetlock's work have helped to once more overcome them. Some of my ideological thinking used to be left-wing, for a little while even with some communist/socialist elements, anti-capitalistic, against any kind of conservatism.

I want to write all those unconscious biases from my upbringing down at some point. It's definitely worth to challenge those ideologies and have a more statistical, empirical approach to politics and society.