This model attempts to determine at what point hospital beds will be filled by COVID-19 patients and hospitals will be above capacity.Note: Hospital beds vs. ICU beds & ventilators We look at number of available hospital beds by US state and compare that to the number of COVID-19 patients that will need a bed. Assumptions are listed below. It takes time between when a patient gets infected, when they show symptoms, and when they go to the hospital, so the number of people who test positive and the death numbers we see in the news are lagging indicators. This model adjusts for that, and takes into accound the case doubling rate of the epidemic. For instructions on how to make edits, scroll to the end.This spreadsheet is a model that estimates at what point hospitals in individual states will reach hospital bed capacity with COVID-19 case patients. This model is for hospital beds, not for ICU beds or ventilators. The total # of ventilators in the US is ~170,000, and they can potentially be moved between states to help meet demand. If you would like to make a copy of this spreadsheet and adapt the model to work for ventilators, please do and let us know so we can distribute the new version. Key variables are located to the right → → → 11Press on name of state for hospital detailEstimated current COVID-19 cases (adjusts for lag between infection and test)Total hospital bedsAvailable bedsDays until hospitals exceed full capacity with COVID-19 patientsDoubling rate for the epidemic 65Instructions to make edits:surgeries and adding temporary beds. Try increasing 66this number to account for this surge capacity. 671. Choose File > Make a copy to create a copy of this34.1% average hospital vacancy rate in 2017; a bit 68 spreadsheet that you will be able to edit.lower now because of flu season. 71 non-medical interventions can help.Hospitalization and fatality rate 723. Try adjusting the other Key variables to see what impact 73 they have on the outcomes.3.0% of COVID-19 cases result in fatality 744. To go deeper, examine the second tab, Primary model Estimates for this number range from 0.84% (S. Korea) 75 calculations, to see how the model works.- 3.5% (WHO est.) 7923.7% of those who enter the hospital (people with 80severe symptoms) will die 81Estimates range from 28% (China study 1), 12.4% 82(China study 2), 15% (China study 3), 4.3% (China 83study 4), to 50% (Italy). We use the average of those, 9212.1days after infection, people arrive at the hospital if 95symptoms, 1 week (7 days) to the development of 96severe disease and hospital admission. 11.5days median hospital stay for a patient who dies 15.0days median hospital stay for a patient who survives disease yields 10 days or 15 days in the hospital.