A practical way to measure and improve product sense
Product sense is one of the most valued skills in our industry. It is also the least defined. We interview for it, we praise it, and we promote based on it. But we almost never measure it.
Most PMs rely on intuition, confidence, and hindsight storytelling. But none of these tell us the one thing that actually matters: How often were you right?
At Amazon, the bar for leadership is simple and brutal: “Being right, a lot.” In product management, we rarely apply that same bar to ourselves. As a result, many PMs keep shipping things that don't work, without ever improving the core skill that caused the failure: Judgment.
Great PMs are not just good at explaining outcomes after they happen. They are good at predicting them before they start.
Product sense is not a "vibe" or a mystical gift. It is a track record. Specifically, it is the ability to:
Judgment is a muscle. And like any muscle, it only grows when it is put under the tension of accountability.
This tool is a simple, repeatable way to quantify your intuition. It works by forcing one high-leverage habit: Make your beliefs explicit before the outcomes are known.
The tool uses a Weighted Brier Score—the gold standard in forecasting—adapted specifically for product work. It ensures that: