Examples of Black Swans
- Market Crash of 1987
- Lebanese Civil War
Part 1: Umberto Eco's AntiLibrary, or How We Seek Validation
This section addresses how humans deal with knowledge and our preference for the anecdotal over the empirical.
- "A library should contain as much of what you do not know, as your financial situation allows you to put there"
- "The more you know, the larger the rows of unread books"
- "Read books are far less valuable than unread ones"
The Triplet of Opacity
The human mind suffers from three ailments as it comes into contact with history:
1. Illusion of understanding
2. Retrospective distortion: how we can only assess matters after the fact
- Hindsight Bias
- History seems clearer and more organized in history books than in empirical reality
- The book that influenced NTT: William Shirer's Berlin Diary: The Journal of a Foreign Correspondent
- Described events as they were taking place, not after
- Humans are blind to things they can't understand