Test 1:

Results:

• ✅ Tested on ETH/USDC (Dec 2024–Apr 2025) using 4-hour ahead predictions with ±1% price range.
• 🎯 High-confidence predictions were correct:
  • 74.2% of the time when price stayed in range.
  • 68.0% of the time when price moved outside the range.
• 📉 Naive baseline accuracy (no model, just historical guess):
  • 56.9% for in-range.
  • 43.1% for out-of-range.
• 🔍 Model avoids low-confidence cases, skipping ~10,000 uncertain scenarios.

Technical details:

Request

{
    "dataset": "uniswap_eth_usdc_minute_2024-12-31_2025-04-14.csv",
    "steps": 240,
    "range": 0.01
}

Response

{
    "debug": {},
    "non_static": {
        "average_probability": 42.08178131360263,
        "cases_prob_over_80": 8789,
        "cases_prob_under_1": 9900,
        "total": 61679
    },
    "overall": {
        "average_probability_within_range": 0.5067226948098416,
        "high_confidence": {
            "range_in_accuracy_percentage": 74.21143745782108,
            "range_in_total": 34081,
            "range_in_wins": 25292,
            "range_out_accuracy_percentage": 68.0225367596537,
            "range_out_total": 14554,
            "range_out_wins": 9900
        },
        "naive": {
            "in_wins": 81552,
            "naive_accuracy_in_range_percentage": 56.93739483770971,
            "naive_accuracy_out_range_percentage": 43.06260516229029,
            "total": 143231
        },
        "processed_rows": 143231
    },
    "static": {
        "average_probability": 57.16938444660028,
        "cases_prob_over_80": 25292,
        "cases_prob_under_1": 4654,
        "total": 81552
    }
}

Test 2:

Results:

• ✅ Tested on ETH/USDC (Dec 2024–Apr 2025) using 2-hour ahead predictions with a tighter ±0.5% price range.
• 🎯 High-confidence predictions were correct:
  • 65.3% of the time when price stayed in range.
  • 80.4% of the time when price moved outside the range.
• 📉 Naive baseline accuracy (simple guessing without a model):
  • 46.0% for in-range.
  • 54.0% for out-of-range.
• 🔍 Model carefully avoids uncertain predictions, abstaining in ~4,645 low-confidence situations.

Technical details:

Request

{
    "dataset": "uniswap_eth_usdc_minute_2024-12-31_2025-04-14.csv",
    "steps": 120,
    "range": 0.005
}