This page contains my personal beliefs on where the world and markets are headed.
First, I am going to share a list of “rules” that help me identify generational companies.
They come from years of learning about startups and chatting with truly exceptional operators. Needless to say, the rules below are not etched in stone. They will evolve, as I gain more experience.
Idea Rules:
- The founders have core beliefs about their market that others either dismiss or even chastise for holding. Their conviction, if held firm and accurate, often creates entirely new markets. (Ex. OpenAI & AirBnB)
- Market timing is everything. Can the founders convince me that novel developments in area X will allow them to do Y for the first time? Can they explain this with first principles thinking? (Ex. DropBox & Uber)
- The founding team needs to be technical. However, not every founder needs to be technical. More importantly, the founding team needs to be a beacon for high quality talent. (Ex. Stripe & Physical Intelligence)
- Are the founders able to clearly articulate a plan to maintain their culture while scaling? (Ex. Palantir & Scale AI)
- What are the tailwinds now and in a decade? Are their structural issues that have stopped companies from succeeding historically. (Ex. Nuclear Energy & Healthcare)
- Have the founders thought about how to build a defensible moat? (Ex. Nvidia & Meta)
Founder Rules:
- Were they contrarian or a risk-taker as a teenager?
- Are they innately curious, opinionated, and show signs of being a lifelong learner?
- Do they operate fast, not only in their ventures but in their everyday life?
- Are they optimistic about the future?
- Does their mere presence (and resulting expectations) cause people to work harder.
- This clip with Peter Thiel and Joe Lonsdale redefined how I view mentorship and expectations.
Why Tech Investing and Thesis:
For me, the role of an investor is to envision a different future and believe that it could happen. And then manage risk by making calculated investments.