Citizens in forest countries must be persuaded to elect leaders that prioritize conservation. Domestic policy is required to end deforestation: improve land tenure laws, enforce environmental rules, provide alternative economic incentives to not deforest land

• In 2016, 36% of deforestation (615,000 acres) in the Brazilian Amazon occurred in public lands, indigenous lands, or lands without clearly defined ownership information.
• There is often no punishment for environmental violations.
  • The government does not reclaim public lands after they have been invaded and claimed.
  • Armed intruders, representing logging or ranching groups, will regularly seize land from indigenous groups. Indigenous groups do not receive adequate government protection. In the first 9 months of 2019 there were 160 invasions of indigenous territories, and in 2018 there were 135 reported killings of indigenous people related to property disputes.
  • 70% of Amazon deforestation occurs illegally; enforcement needs to be improved.
• To reduce demand for products that drive deforestation, local governments will have to support monitoring and traceability of commodities such as beef.
  • A number of Brazilian meatpacking companies promised to not source beef from recently deforested lands.
  • However, companies responsible for 30% of cattle volume did not sign the agreement, and the remaining companies started "laundering" cattle - purchasing cattle that were transferred from deforested land to non-deforested land right before slaughter. Meatpackers claim that it's too hard to track where cattle came from, because the government doesn't require traceability.
• In addition to setting and enforcing laws, domestic governments have a much larger budget than international donors to create the right incentives. "Domestic subsidies are orders of magnitude larger than foreign aid contributions, and a recent study across Brazil, Chile, China, Indonesia and Mexico showed that domestic agricultural subsidies are – on average – 100 times greater than international REDD finance (REDD stands for the United Nations Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation)."

Domestic and international markets must reduce demand for Amazonian beef and soy, to reduce economic value of producing it

• While 80% of Brazil's beef is consumed domestically, exports (particularly to China) are driving growth in the industry, which is expected to grow by 22% next year.
  • Brazil exports nearly $30B in beef and soy each year ($6B in beef and $23.2B in soy).
  • 40% of beef and 25% of soy is grown in the Amazon region.
• International markets can demand better traceability to understand if their purchases are causing deforestation. International markets should refuse to purchase untraced commodities.

Additional deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon surprisingly does not deliver significant economic benefit

• Given the huge volume of already deforested land in the Amazon, the incremental economic value of deforesting land is relatively small
  • The average area cleared per year between 2007 and 2016 (1.85M acres per year) has the potential to add about $141 million USD in agricultural production value. "This figure represents only 0.013% of the average Brazilian GDP"
• One way to reduce pressure for cattle-driven deforestation is to improve the productivity of existing cattle ranches. 65% of deforested land is used for low-efficiency pastures, which support less than one cow per hectare. Using better pasture management policies can improve economic output by 40% or more, without requiring deforestation.
• In addition, this creates hope that sustainable forest activities (e.g., sale of forest products) and international payments could provide an alternative to new deforestation. The FAO estimates that each acre of cattle ranching provides ~$50 of revenue each year, so alternative solutions must be able to deliver a comparable economic benefit.

International payments can help create incentives to keep trees standing - if the payments are large enough, and if done in partnership with forest governments

• International financiers pour money into agriculture, roads, and infrastructure that encourages deforestation; about $85B per year since 2010.
• Meanwhile, there is only about $1B of international forest aid each year.... worldwide. 40% of this sum comes from Norway alone.
  • International support can help encourage forest governments to prioritize conservation over economic development - but only if payments are large and ongoing. Norway has single-handedly been funding forest incentives (e.g., performance-based payments directly to governments of Guyana, Congo, Brazil), with mixed results.
  • The Stern Report in 2006 said a minimum of $10B / year is needed to halt tropical deforestation. Some argue that part of the failures of Norway's programs are that the payments are not large enough, and they need to continue for longer than say, 5 years.
• Ultimately, if local politicians decide to pursue economic development over conservation, then the forests will be cut down. Local leadership, and the support of local people who will elect and support conservation-minded leaders, is crucial. The international community's role is to "support developing countries increase their own ambitions and commitments," rather than to dictate how and what local countries are supposed to do.