Russia is going to invade Ukraine
- The goal of the invasion is vague
- Russian presence in Belarus is worrisome
- Russia is deploying S-400 anti-air devices in Belarus and in Western Russia, these are the real deal.
- US support to Ukraine is about helping an ally, it’s also about calming the nerves of Poland and the Baltics. If Russia acts in a massive way, they could be spooked into attacking Russia preemptively.
- There are those asking - “If Russia was going to invade, why would they make it so obvious” - How do you sneak attack in 2022? There are space satellites that follow your military at all times.
What does this mean for everyone else?
- Germany is in a rough spot.
- The US is showing its commitment to European Security.
- The UK is showing that it’s interested in Europe again, it’s showing its commitment as a security partner. Endless amounts of military equipment are being delivered to Ukraine.
Feb 16 update
- Ukraine cybersecrurity
- Russia positioning along the border but saying that they are still talking to the West while there also is “ah they are backing down?” as they pullback troops vibes but it doesn’t really seem like they are deescalating - but now saying there is genocide which gives them a reason to defend, not “invade” - surely they are not going to do a full blown invasion hehe
- Russia is increasing tropp numbers at ukranian borders
- India is asking citizens to leave - Listened to this Intelligence podcast yesterday and one of the guy’s was arguing “Israel supports Russia’s claims in Ukraine, they are to a certain extent a Russian ally and US intelligence persuaded them to evacuate.” And then the other person said “what about India tho” And they suggested that if India evacuates.. that perhaps that’s further confirmation of US intelligence