The need for genuinely entrepreneurial policy-making that has the ability to create new directions and ways of doing things, while having a long-term focus and stability, has never been more urgent. You only need to look as far as the UK's financial "black hole," growing evidence of a lack of strategic thinking in government, or any one of the countless emerging threats on the horizon to see that the prevailing form of cost-benefit policy decision-making just isn't cutting it. Change is needed, but where does it start?

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Policy-making that creates new directions and ways of doing things, while having a long-term focus and stability, isn't easy. Making—and evaluating—the decisions to do so is even harder. With growing evidence of a lack of strategic thinking at the administrative levels of government, it's clear that the prevailing form of cost-benefit policy decision-making just isn't cutting it. This article proposes a new framework for making policy decisions in the face of uncertainty.

• The decisions policy teams face are increasingly interconnected and complex.
• uncritical, antiquated CBA

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Policy-making that creates new directions and ways of doing things, while having a long-term focus and stability, isn't easy. Making—and evaluating—the decisions to do so is even harder. With growing evidence of a lack of strategic thinking at the administrative levels of government, it's clear that the prevailing form of cost-benefit policy decision-making just isn't cutting it. Change is needed, but where does it come from?

Part of my role as a service designer at HMRC's Policy Lab is being exposed to some of the earliest forms of policy thinking and decision-making. Our team collaborates with policy experts, solution architects, and cost engineers across HMRC to better understand how new policy ideas "impact" both citizens and the organisation itself.

We bring a user-centred design perspective to the table, leveraging user research, systems thinking, and strategy design tools to navigate complex policy ecosystems and embed public value in decisions that shape effective and feasible policies.

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In situations where the assumptions of marginality, homogeneity, and certainty are appropriate, cost-benefit analysis can be a useful technique for informing policy decisions

Now, in situations where assumptions of marginality, homogeneity, and certainty are appropriate (in which there are rarely any), cost-benefit analysis is a very useful tool for informing policy design. Nobody in their right mind would argue that expert input, science, and cost-benefit analysis are undesirable in deciding which policies and investments to pursue. But, in reality, administering policies to citizens is not a marginal, homogenous or a certain process. It’s un-rationale, unpredictable and uncertain. All qualities that traditional forms of policy appraisal are less suited to.

**explain marginality, homogeneity, and certainty

• assumptions of marginality, homogeneity, and certainty are baked into the UK government’s guide to policy appraisal (the ‘Green Book’).