draft notes on impact

Linear model introduction

Introduction

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a socio-economic crisis. Associated with 4.95 million deaths per year, the World Health Organisation cites it as one of the top 10 global health threats facing humanity, estimated to cost the world's economy up to $100 trillion by 2050 and potentially throw more than 28 million people into poverty worldwide. Over the past decade, the biopharmaceutical innovation system has increasingly been seen as an “insufficient” pipeline for new antibacterials innovation to address this crisis (The WHO 2021, 2022). This paper will reassess the UK’s five-year national action plan, which was published in 2019, and it’s effectiveness in addressing AMR innovation. Using both a traditional, static framework like the linear model of innovation, as well as more dynamic approaches to innovation like Carlota Perez's techno-economic model and Mariana Mazzucato's Entrepreneurial State approach, this paper will analyse and compare the strengths, risks and opportunities within a number of innovation policies outlined in the UK's five-year action plan.

Draft

This is brought into stark reality when considering that since the early 1900s, 164 direct-acting antibacterial new chemical entities have been approved by the FDA, yet, over the past 35 years, there has only been one new entity approved (Thomas et al., 2022). Despite this stark problem being common knowledge, in 2022, the AMR clinical pipeline contained "54 direct-acting novel chemical or biochemical entities and 10 microbial entities" with just 10 of those having a novel target (Thomas et al., 2022). The World Health Organisation suggests that, given the time AMR R&D takes, this current pipeline will generate few new innovative antibiotics in the coming years (WHO, 2021).

Introduction to section: reassessing the UK’s 5-year national action plan by analysing and its effectiveness at addressing AMR innovation.

• analysing and comparing push and pull innovation policies within the action plan.

The AMR action plan has both push based incentives and pull based incentives in an attempt to stimulate R&D activity that will help achieve AMR outcomes. This section of the paper analyses each type of incentive using an innovation framework to understand it’s strengths, gaps and opportunities.

And then…

• The biopharmaceutical industries self defeating prophecy of market-fixing. (Essentially, expand on the problem)
• [OVERVIEW] The UK’s five-year national action plan (what is it, key ambitions, key policies from 2019 to 2023) (is the amendment worth mentioning?)
• Early 2019 policies are best characterised by a static, traditional approach to innovation with little impact on AMR innovation.
• (Explain linear model framework, show policy is supported by it, show that it’s not effective for AMR innovation with statistics and then analyse with techno-economic approach to innovation to identify opportunities).