Normalcy bias makes people think things will stay the same, underestimating big changes or crises. It's like the "illusion of permanence," where we expect the present situation to last forever. This is similar to cognitive conservatism, where people don't change their beliefs even when new facts appear.
Most people use Normalcy bias in context of catastrophes I use it more broadly as a tendency so what’s here, what’s normal is gonna persist.
When catastrophes happen people don’t believe what’s happening. 70% 9/11 survivors first talk to other people before escaping, when Vesuvio blew up a lot of peeps from Pompeii were just watching. See Base Rate and Growth Rate peeps in Balaji Srinivasan on Shane Parrish Show #78 Read more in Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Can this bias be generalized to the: Illusion of permanence dynamic? Sub-bias: Solidified world illusion 🎨
A very similar dynamic is termed as cognitive conservatism – mentioned by Philip Tetlock as a failure to update their beliefs in response to failed predictions.
The same dynamic of normalcy bias may also may influence seeing past events where evolution of things seem nonexistent.