Core Vision: Enable global predictive models to continuously evolve through open-market competition, validated by real-world outcomes, producing ever-improving event simulation and forecasting capabilities.

1. Introduction: Decentralized Event Simulation & Prediction Engine

MiroSwarm is a Bittensor subnet dedicated to building a decentralized, continuously evolving event simulation and prediction system.

The Problem: The AI prediction market today suffers from three fundamental flaws:

1. Single-methodology lock-in: Platforms rely on a narrow set of models or analysts.
2. No real-world validation loop: Predictions are rarely tracked and scored against actual outcomes.
3. No scalable incentive for quality: The best forecasting capabilities cannot be reliably identified, rewarded, or scaled.

MiroSwarm's Solution: We commoditize "predictive intelligence" on Bittensor. Validators feed live real-world events to miners, who generate structured forecasts across three time horizons (2-day, 7-day, 14-day). After the fact, validators collect ground-truth outcomes and objectively score each miner against their predictions. Yuma Consensus allocates TAO emissions based on these scores, creating a self-evolving prediction engine.

Key Figures:

• 3 validation windows (2-day / 7-day / 14-day) covering short, medium, and long-range forecasting.
• N+ competing methodologies (geopolitical models, market-sentiment models, tech-diffusion models, social-network models).
• $XXB+ global predictive analytics market (finance, geopolitical risk, policy impact assessment).

2. Reward Logic

MiroSwarm employs a Benchmark-Beating + Tiered hybrid reward structure.

Core Principles:

• Breakthrough Reward: A miner that sets a new accuracy benchmark captures the majority of miner-side emissions for that cycle (up to 80%).
• Sustained Competitiveness: Strong contenders near the benchmark share the remaining emissions proportionally.
• Elimination: Miners consistently ranked at the bottom lose their UID slots to new registrants.

Emission Flow (standard Bittensor split):