The map is not the territory.

When we see a powerful model work well, we tend to over-apply it, using it in non-analogous situations. We have trouble delimiting its usefulness, which causes errors. It is just an abstraction of the world - needs to be interpreted which could lead to errors.

The Map Is Not the Territory

Circle of Competence

Each of us, through experience or study, has built up useful knowledge on certain areas of the world. Some areas are understood by most of us, while some areas require a lot more specialty to evaluate.

You have to figure out what your own aptitudes are. If you play games where other people have the aptitudes and you don’t, you’re going to lose.

If you want to improve your odds of success in life and business, then define the perimeter of your circle of competence, and operate inside.

Understanding your Circle of Competence: How Warren Buffett Avoids Problems

First Principles Thinking

A first principle is a foundational proposition or assumption that stands alone. We cannot deduce first principles from any other proposition or assumption.

The difference between reasoning by first principles and reasoning by analogy is like the difference between being a chef and being a cook. If the cook lost the recipe, he’d be screwed. The chef, on the other hand, understands the flavour profiles and combinations at such a fundamental level that he doesn’t even use a recipe.

Socratic Questioning

1. Clarifying your thinking and explaining the origins of your ideas (Why do I think this? What exactly do I think?)
2. Challenging assumptions (How do I know this is true? What if I thought the opposite?)
3. Looking for evidence (How can I back this up? What are the sources?)
4. Considering alternative perspectives (What might others think? How do I know I am correct?)
5. Examining consequences and implications (What if I am wrong? What are the consequences if I am?)
6. Questioning the original questions (Why did I think that? Was I correct? What conclusions can I draw from the reasoning process?)

First Principles: The Building Blocks of True Knowledge

Thought Experiment

All truly wise thoughts have been thought already thousands of times; but to make them truly ours, we must think them over again honestly, until they take root in our personal experience.

The benefit of thought experiments (as opposed to aimless rumination) is their structure. In an organized manner, thought experiments allow us to challenge existing structure and move beyond into the unknown.

• Prefactual – ‘What will X cause to happen?’
• Counterfactual – ‘If Y happened instead of X, what would be the outcome?’
• Semi-factual – ‘If Y had happened instead of X, would the outcome be the same?’
• Prediction– ‘If X continues to happen, what will the outcome be in one year?’
• Hindcasting– ‘X happened, could Y have predicted it?’
• Retrodiction– ‘What caused X? How can we prevent it from happening again?’
• Backcasting – ‘If X happens in one year, what would have caused it?’

“ The only solution for an enlightened person is to let the mind absorb itself in what it experiences, without having to form a judgment on what it all means. The mind must be able to feel doubt and uncertainty for as long as possible. As it remains in this state and probes deeply into the mysteries of the universe, ideas will come that are more dimensional and real than if we had jumped to conclusions and formed judgments early on.”— Robert Greene, Mastery

Wittgenstein uses the ‘Beetle in a Box’ thought experiment to convey his work on the subjective nature of pain. We can each only know what pain is to us, and we cannot feel another person’s agony.

Thought Experiment: How Einstein Solved Difficult Problems