Probability Basics

Independent Events

whatever happened in the past is independent of future events

combine events by multiplication

e.g. chance of 2 heads (or 3 heads) in a row? .5 x .5 x (.5)

Mutually Exclusive

if A happened, B is not going to happen

combine events by addition/summation

e.g. chance of head or tail? .5 + .5 = 1

Non-mutually Exclusive

The overlapped area or area of intersection is there

substract that area; A + B - (AB)

E.g The chance of meeting someone who is obese, has diabetes, or both?

assume obesity prevalence = 30%, diabetes prevalence = 10%

30% i.e. 0.3 + 10% i.e. 0.1 - (0.3 x 0.1)

40% (0.4) - 3% (0.03) = 37% or 0.37


Central Limit Theorem (CLT):

the random sampling distribution of mean would always tend to be normal irrespective of the population distribution for which the sample were drown.

Standard error of the mean