Proposal A

A market for each outcome we care about.

1. Will they have a first date?
2. Will they have a second date?
3. Will they start a relationship?
4. Will their relationship last 6 months?

One problem with A is that the markets reach increasingly small probabilities by market 4. It’s hard to trade well in that case.

Proposal B

Hat tip to someone on the manifold.love community call for this idea.

A succession of conditional markets.

1. Will they have a first date?
2. If they have a first date, will they have a second date?
3. If they have a second date, will they start a relationship?
4. If they start a relationship, will that relationship last 6 months?

This one is really cool.

We can compute the chance of a 6 month relationship by multiplying the probabilities of all four markets. And, each individual market will not be that unlikely, because each assumes a world where every step previous step in the relationship has succeeded.

Resolution

If they don’t have a first date, the 1 would resolve NO, and 2-4 would all resolve N/A. If they have a first date, but not a second date, then 1 would resolve YES, 2 to NO, and 3-4 would resolve N/A. And so on.

The only non-ideal part of this proposal is that spending mana on market 4 is not very capital efficient if that world of them starting a relationship is pretty unlikely.

• One proposal is to do automatic loans on markets 2-4, where you automatically get back 1-X% of your bet if the condition of your market has X probability of happening.
  • E.g. if the markets are 1. 90%, 2. 90%, 3. 90% and you bet M50 on 4, then you get a loan for 1-(90%^3) = 27.1% of M50.