A market for each outcome we care about.
One problem with A is that the markets reach increasingly small probabilities by market 4. It’s hard to trade well in that case.
********************Hat tip to someone on the manifold.love community call for this idea.
A succession of conditional markets.
This one is really cool.
We can compute the chance of a 6 month relationship by multiplying the probabilities of all four markets. And, each individual market will not be that unlikely, because each assumes a world where every step previous step in the relationship has succeeded.
If they don’t have a first date, the 1 would resolve NO, and 2-4 would all resolve N/A. If they have a first date, but not a second date, then 1 would resolve YES, 2 to NO, and 3-4 would resolve N/A. And so on.
The only non-ideal part of this proposal is that spending mana on market 4 is not very capital efficient if that world of them starting a relationship is pretty unlikely.