How hot could it get?

The most likely temperature rise by 2100 right now is 3.2°C.

There's only a 5% chance of greater than 5°C temperature rise. As well as a 5% chance of keeping warming under 2°C, and a 1% chance of keeping warming to 1.5°C.

The UN emissions gap report says we need to triple our current efforts to have a chance at keeping warming under 2°C. And increase efforts by 5x for 1.5°C.

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What does this mean for humans?

Number of days above the deadly threshold for the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2100.

https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/secure.notion-static.com/d0af0279-fb28-4ce2-8246-d4c7c1be34ca/Screen_Shot_2021-04-01_at_1.56.26_pm.png

Tool: https://maps.esri.com/globalriskofdeadlyheat/#

Go further: Carbon Brief article

EcoWatch - Potentially Deadly Heat and Humidity Levels Are Already Here and Rising


How much do we have left in our carbon budget?

Global carbon budget for 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R071WPD5MCc&feature=youtu.be

Source: https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/


1.5 vs 2 degrees - what's the difference?

https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/1.5v2.png

Source: https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/half-degree-and-world-apart-difference-climate-impacts-between-15-c-and-2-c-warming


Why is it so important to stay well below 2 degrees?