In the fast-growing world of prediction markets, two platforms stand out — Kalshi and Polymarket.

Both allow people to trade on the outcome of real-world events like elections, interest rate decisions, or the price of Bitcoin. But how they operate, who they serve, and the rules they follow are completely different.

On one side, you have Kalshi, a fully regulated U.S.-based exchange, licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It offers limited, tightly-controlled event contracts for traders who want to legally bet on real-world outcomes within the American financial system.

On the other side, you have Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform built on the blockchain. It is permissionless, global, and powered by smart contracts. Unlike Kalshi, it doesn’t ask for your ID, doesn’t hold your funds, and lets anyone anywhere (outside the U.S.) trade on hundreds of user-created markets.

This article will explore the core differences between Kalshi and Polymarket — and what they represent in the larger evolution of financial forecasting.

Are you regulated and restricted, or decentralized and free?

Let’s dive in.

Why Kalshi Is Regulated and Polymarket Is Not

Kalshi: A Regulated Prediction Market

Kalshi is based in the United States and is officially regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — the same body that oversees futures and derivatives markets in the U.S.

What Regulation Means for Kalshi:

• Kalshi is licensed to offer event contracts as financial products.
• Their markets must be pre-approved and narrowly defined.
• Users in the U.S. can legally trade because it's treated like a regulated exchange.
• Kalshi has strict KYC (Know Your Customer) and AML (Anti-Money Laundering) rules.
• It operates more like a formal exchange for institutional and retail traders.

Polymarket: A Decentralized, Unregulated Platform