<aside> 📌 Tenants: 1. [Value investor] focused on LONG in fundamentally strong companies that benefit from megatrends + have good biz model + undervalued 2. [Income investor] generate income in a systematical way
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<aside> 📌 journal my trades
可以达到上述目的的标的：accumulate (investment in the megatrend of next decade): AMD, CAAP, SMCI, NVDA, MSFT. ****
Hodl CSCO. HOLD能源。
Sell THQ (div too little?), CTO (-1,943.39% payout ratio), OHI (149.72% payout), SRC (payout 127.55%).
阿里巴巴的营收已经落后于京东集团。
阿里已经不仅面临拼多多的赶超，京东的碾压，还将面临百度，ChatGPT的颠覆。
孙正义希望马云帮助自己扭转软银的艰难局面。如果阿里巴巴自身被其他企业赶超，那么自己最重要的阿里巴巴股票价值将会大幅下跌。
阿里已经不是当年的阿里。2022年，股神巴菲特跟芒格，在阿里巴巴的投资中，都亏损了4000多万美元，最后止损了事。
马云看似云淡风轻，阿里已经十面埋伏。
全力以赴推出阿里的人工智能电商平台，是马云的最后一战，更是背水一战。
如果阿里不能快速推出自己的电商AI，等待阿里巴巴的，将是更为严峻的考验。
ARM上市虽然重要，如果阿里巴巴被偷家，愿景基金的债权人会挤兑基金，软银将再也没有翻身之日。在这个危急时刻，软银只能暂时放弃治疗。
硅谷银行的破产，不仅宣告了美国金融危机的启动，更是意味着中小创新企业快速增长时代已经过去。今天的互联网，已经步入寡头竞争时代，留给互联网中小企业只有一些残羹剩饭
ChatGPT也快速被微软植入Office软件系列与Bing搜索引擎。
ChatGPT强大的信息搜索与整合能力，一旦用在电商，可以帮助客户在万千商品之中选取最适合用户的产品。这种能力，会彻底颠覆现有的搜索引擎与电商产业模式。
GPT-5及后续的数据模型需要大量的计算资源进行训练，包括耗费大量的算力芯片，芯片的运转，需要大量的能源进行大数据的计算。在高度信息化社会，无论是交通运输，生活日常，作物种植，工业生产，还是数据计算，都需要大量的能源。
美国近期的加息，导致美元越来越强势，同时由于美元利率过高，其他发展中国家，尤其是借贷美元过多的国家，由于外汇紧缺，甚至导致外贸瘫痪，甚至国家破产，比如斯里兰卡。
美元的强势背后，其实是美元信用的降低。
如果美元有足够的信用，不需要加息，就会有足够强的购买力确保进口价格低廉，美国的通胀也不至于飙升。
对于国际资本而言，美元信用的下降，必须购入更加有价值的资产，那个资产就是能源。
人工智能技术的进一步发展，人类社会也更加信息化与工业化。科技化与信息化会伴随人类对能源消耗的指数性上涨。未来世界，是一个高耗能的世界。
对俄罗斯制裁导致能源价格上涨是短时间内的因素，人工智能技术的突破，则在中长期会带来能源价格的暴涨。
除非在人工智能的帮助下，人类能够研发出更先进的太空技术在太空获取太阳能，或者突破核聚变技术获取廉价能源。否则，能源的所有权，将是未来最有价值的财富。
Microsoft told Recode it was not disclosing the deal's specifics, but Semafor reported two weeks ago that the two companies were talking about $10 billion, with Microsoft getting 75 percent of OpenAI's profits until it recoups its investment, after which it would have a 49 percent stake in the company.Jan 23, 2023
🚨 Welcome back to this special edition of LinkedIn News Tech Stack. 🚨
While the tech industry has taken a hard hit in recent months, artificial intelligence is an area where progress has accelerated at an unprecedented scale, after years of mostly being confined to research labs.
Consider that it took OpenAI less than four months to roll out GPT4 after GPT3.5, the large-language model powering its ChatGPT. Or that it took the now renowned generative chatbot a record-breaking two months to reach a million users.
Now, with an arms race underway between tech titans, the disruptive technology is arguably on the cusp of its “golden age,” as potential applications cut industries and business functions — just as some workers are redefining what it means to work in tandem with it.
In fact, according to a Goldman Sachs report released just this week,AI automation stands to impact 66% of all jobs and catalyze a productivity push that could boost global GDP by 7%.
At the same time, some quarters of the industry are asking companies to pump the brakes on "giant AI experiments" to manage risk. They’re pushing for a six-month pause on anything more powerful than GPT-4, saying that the race to develop machine learning is outpacing necessary guardrails.
But one thing's for sure: AI is already disrupting centuries-old processes across industries ranging from finance to healthcare. We spoke with several Top Voices across the field to get their take on what they think the technology is capable of, how it’s expected to grow in the years ahead and what workers need to know.
Read on for their takes.
Ethan Mollick Manail Anis Ahmed Allie K. Miller Vin Vashishta Chip Huyen Morgan Cheatham Piyush Gupta
If you find this edition insightful 💡 click the button below, and let me know why in the comments. And to get notified on future editions, please subscribe!
#TechonLinkedIn #linkedintechstack
Q) "WWBD ?" = What would Buffet do ?
A) Hold. And if the price drops, buy more.
Details: Berkshire Hathaway owns 10.7 M shares of AMZN. ... according to Motley Fool article: "5 Stocks Both Warren Buffett and Cathie Wood Own in 2023".
And Buffett is sitting on plenty of cash. If AMZN drops after Thursday's earnings release, I'm sure he will buy more.
So that's what I'm doing.
Long on AMZN. Buying more if the price drops.
Sorry, Buffet is not a market timing guesser. He buys and sells any time based on the merits of a company. That is why he bought AMZN and held since 2019.
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<aside> 📌
Overall: My longer term goal is NOT to beat the index. My goal is to generate INCOME/Gains using a systematic approach. This means my style is that I’m trying to target a 1% gain on average every month. Might not seem like a lot, but I do plan to scale my strategy with more capital, and it becomes quite meaningful/additive when markets do nothing or are falling. From my experience, targeting for more than 1% gain a month at the portfolio level almost always requires a materially higher level of risk-taking.