Scenario Summary

A group of learners, recently displaced by a climate disaster, work together to earn a basic competency certificate in Combinatorial Design, a new secondary-school subject area developed to nurture development and application of collaborative and creative skills for community-based problem solving. They connect over mixed reality, browse holographic knowledge repositories for ideas and inspiration, and share their work for community validation.

Influences & Drivers


Mobility and migration will be the baseline, with people relocating to more hospitable climates for wellbeing and employment opportunities. In this environment, the ability to learn new skills, information, and techniques is no longer dependent on geographic proximity. Updated curriculum based on ecological/social/cultural/technology systems is needed to establish 21st century citizens and provide the human capital for future innovation.



1 (low) - 5 (high)

4: Creating new schemes for curriculum and certification, building out connective infrastructure, and supporting teachers, learners, and communities through the transition. Cost to end learners may be lowered by mass production of devices, and government financing the cost of the communications network. New financing models may be developed, with the possibility that industry partners may recoup costs by monetizing projects created by learners in exchange for providing high quality curriculum.

Time Horizon

10-30 Years

Education Market Fit

Government takes a more RFP and RFQ approach to developing curriculum and standards by defining high-level principles and desired outcomes, supporting and amplifying successful experimentation and innovation.

Industry partners step in and develop modular lessons and competency certifications that provide pathways from compulsory education into the learning workforce.

Comments and Questions

As people become geographically mobile, how will large capital investments respond? Will new industrial centers form? Will there be a ghost kitchen-ification of manufacturing?

Where are the opportunities for existing inequalities to be amplified or reduced?

Adaptation takes place across layers: individual, family, community, region, society, culture, economy. What conditions need to be in place to put wellbeing and long-term resilience at the center?

What new infrastructure will need to be developed for compensating curriculum creators as well as learners for the knowledge they produce?



What is it like to live in this future?

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