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Dates

29 September 2025 - Embargo

6 October 2025 - Report released

23 October 2025 - Webinar (Register here: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_JlWXosxuSomyXYJCCWYHYw#/registration)

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Key Links

Campaign link for social media and public-facing comms

🔗 transitionzero.org/cfe

Direct links to send to partners only

📰 Media release (English)

📈 Report [PDF] (English)

🔢 Methodology [PDF]

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About Project

Climate analytics nonprofit TransitionZero has modelled the impact of hourly matched CFE procurement in five Asian countries: India, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia & Singapore. Reports will be released between July 2025 and Singapore International Energy Week in October 2025.

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Key findings

• Background
• Key questions
• Singapore power sector background
• An overview of TransitionZero’s study approach
• 70% 24/7 CFE delivers lower net system costs than annual matching Achieving 70% hourly CFE by 2030 for participating C&I consumers (around 4% of national demand) has a net system cost that is US$16 million lower than annual matching. This equates to a 38% reduction in system costs compared to annual matching, while still reducing emissions and fuel use
• Excess renewable generation cuts fuel costs for the grid Hourly matching creates operational savings by allowing surplus solar and battery generation to be exported back to the grid, displacing LNG generation. These fuel savings range from US$185 million at 70% CFE to US$261 million at 100% CFE, lowering overall system costs by up to 26%. By contrast, annual matching fuel savings plateau at US$218 million
• Solar and batteries are the backbone of Singapore’s clean buildout A 2.4 GW solar and 0.5 GW battery buildout is sufficient to achieve 70% CFE. This requires 700 MW less capacity and US$47 million less in capex than annual matching. However, costs rise steeply at higher targets: moving from 80% to 100% CFE doubles required capacity and investment. Four-hour lithium-ion batteries are sufficient through 2030; long-duration storage offers little added value
• Regional imports raise Singapore’s baseline CFE score
• Hourly matching delivers deeper emissions cuts than annual matching At 70–80% CFE, annual matching reduces system-wide emissions more than hourly matching, due to greater renewable overbuild. But from 90% onwards, hourly matching cuts 16–22% more emissions than annual matching, delivering about 1.44 MtCO₂e savings at 99–100% CFE
• CCS and hydrogen blending play only a marginal role by 2030

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Imagery

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Supporting Quotes

““Hourly matching is a ‘no-regrets’ strategy for Singapore. By enabling PPAs to match demand hourly and export surplus clean power to the grid, policymakers can drive significant fuel cost savings and reinforce national climate goals.”

Matt Gray, Co-founder and CEO at TransitionZero

““Hourly matching transforms corporate procurement into a system-level asset. It helps displace high-cost fuel use, supports battery flexibility, and complements—not replaces—Singapore’s import ambitions. It turns clean procurement into a system benefit, not just a compliance exercise.”

Isabella Suarez, Lead Southeast Asia Analyst at TransitionZero

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Report launch webinar (TBD)

What? Zoom webinar

When? 23 October, 2025

Time: 8:00 - 9:00 am (BST / London time)

 3:00 - 4:00 pm (Singapore time)

Register here: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_JlWXosxuSomyXYJCCWYHYw#/registration

Guest panelists:

Peerapat Vithayasrichareon, Senior Energy Analyst, International Energy Agency

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Suggested social media posts

🇸🇬 Singapore’s updated climate targets, outlined in its Second Nationally Determined Contribution submitted in February 2025, commit the country to reducing emissions to 45–50 MtCO₂e by 2035.

🏝️ As a small island city-state with limited domestic clean energy resources, Singapore requires careful planning to decarbonise its power system.

Our analysis shows strong benefits for commercial and industrial Singaporean consumers to move away from annual matching toward hourly-matched 24/7 carbon-free energy (CFE).

Using a detailed, open-source model, we examined how 24/7 carbon-free energy could affect grid planners and corporate buyers. Specifically, what are the implications of meeting 4% of demand with 24/7 CFE by 2030?

Our model treated Singapore as a single grid zone with two interconnectors: the existing link to Peninsular Malaysia and a planned connection to Indonesia.

💰 Results show that Achieving a 70% CFE share could lower system costs by US$47M annually compared with annual matching, while saving at least US$185M in fuel costs by displacing gas on the main grid.

🔄 Regional interconnectors are key: they save money and reduce emissions by increasing solar generation and further displacing gas. A 1 GW import line from Indonesia increases clean electricity access from 2.7% to 10% by 2030.

This is the third in a series of reports exploring the system-level impacts of 24/7 CFE, following India and Japan.

This work draws on the extraordinary contributions of those who came before us. We would like to acknowledge the first 24/7 CFE modelling studies published by Jesse Jenkins (Associate professor, Princeton University), Qingyu Xu (Associate Research Fellow, Beijing Huairou Laboratory), Tom Brown (Professor of "Digital Transformation in Energy Systems", Technical University of Berlin), and Iegor Riepin (Staff Research Scientist, Technical University of Berlin). As open source projects, these provided us with the guiding methodology and modelling approach upon which to build. In addition, we benefited from Iegor's guidance and expertise on the finer details of modelling. This work would not have been possible without their groundbreaking research.

These reports are based on detailed open source grid models. The GitHub repository will be be made available after publishing the last report.

👉 Download the full Modelling 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy in Singapore report here → transitionzero.org/cfe

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Social handles and links

LinkedIn - @transitionzero

BlueSky - @transitionzero.org

Instagram - @transitionzero_

Website - transitionzero.org

Landing page - transitionzero.org/cfe

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