"We aren't seeing excess deaths. The people who die with coronavirus would have died of something else anyway."
"Compared to earlier years the number of people dying isn't unusually high."
"There might have been excess deaths in the spring, but there aren't now."
"There aren't as many excess deaths as in a normal year."
"Even if there are excess deaths, it doesn't mean Covid caused them."
Nick Stripe from the Office for National Statistics noted on 6 January 2021 that in the previous 52 weeks, there were around 604,000 deaths registered across England and Wales. This was 73,000 deaths—or 14%—higher than the baseline from the previous five years. This means that 2020 was a particularly brutal year for deaths. It shows conclusively that the "no excess deaths" argument is not correct.
We can also look at the specific weeks in which the "excess" deaths occur. Deaths in 2020 started off below the five-year baseline. Compared to the baseline, there were very many more deaths in the Spring (corresponding to the first wave of Covid). Then, the excess death number rose again from mid-October, as shown in the following chart, from Nick Stripe of the ONS. The raw data, including the baseline and the 2020 figures, can be found on this page.
Page added on 19 January 2021