(UPDATED VERSION)

In February 2025, the African Union Commission (AUC) elections took place — a major event with implications across the continent. Yet, despite its importance, there was no public market to forecast the outcome. No dashboard tracking sentiment. No crowd-driven data. No way for the public to participate in real-time analysis. And definitely, no Polymarket.

If this event had been available on Polymarket — or better yet, on an African-focused platform like NextMarket (that is at conceptual stage and currently sharing ideas of a bright future for Africa) — it could have been a game-changer, not just for traders, but for transparency, information flow, and civic engagement.

Why the AUC Elections Would Have Been a Perfect Market

• High uncertainty: Few trusted polling sources. Most people had no idea who was leading.
• High impact: Leadership decisions at the AU level affect trade, policy, and peacekeeping.
• Huge interest across 50+ countries — but no real way to measure or aggregate sentiment.

Instead, most Africans relied on media speculation, government press releases, and social media rumors.

But if this election had been live on a prediction market:

• Traders could express confidence in candidates based on real information.
• Journalists could have referenced market data instead of guesswork.
• Citizens could have participated meaningfully by trading or watching the market evolve.

How the U.S. and Canada Got It Right

Polymarket covered the 2020 and 2024 U.S. elections, and also the Canadian Presidential elections — and they were some of the most accurate public indicators of real-time outcomes.

• In 2020 and 2024, Polymarket traders correctly predicted swing states before mainstream media.
• Canadian elections showed real-time shifts in public sentiment based on debate performances and regional polling — all reflected instantly in market prices.

Prediction markets became a source of truth, independent of traditional polling errors and media bias.

Why the Media Isn’t Enough in Africa

The African media landscape is still growing — but it’s often fragmented, politically biased, and slow to report reliable data.

• Many voters rely on Twitter, WhatsApp rumors, or partisan outlets.