This is an overview memo of Shell’s potential to expand further into the new age of precision forestry in Makueni County, Kenya to combat the soil issues aggravated by climate change by planting over 1.4 million trees using UAV drones.

Julia Duarte, Keerthana Srinivasan, Mia Aiyana Cardenas, Shrila Esturi

<aside> ⭐ The problem and the opportunity for Shell The effects of deforestation are degrading the quality of topsoil in Makueni County, Kenya, similar to other regions that have experienced deforestation. However, the consequences of climate change (severe & frequent drought, disease, extremely high temperatures, poor crop yield) are disproportionately degrading the already degraded land in Makueni, more so than in regions outside Africa.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtTGZ8KjQFs

A Quick Summary

Kenyan agriculture is threatened with an annual productivity drop of 21.41% due to low crop yield. Since 11,000 hectares of trees are cut annually, deforestation degrades soil quality and causes losses. The main resforestry tool is manual replanting which is costly, time-consuming, and resource-intensive. Shell can boost Kenya’s reforestation, thus building a carbon sink that consumes billions of tons of carbon to alleviate Scope 3 emissions.

One UAV drone can plant over 100,000 seeds daily and monitor over 1 million seedlings annually via LiDAR sensing, photogrammetric sensing, and machine learning. Our drones will monitor carbon stocks with 92% accuracy, outperforming Kenyan MRV solutions. Crotons, seeds from planted trees, will be processed into biodiesel by Kenyan firm, EcoFix upgrading Shell’s long-term biofuel plan.

Our carbon sinks can absorb up to 10.8 billion tonnes of CO2 annually which is over 4.4 million carbon credits within 5 years, or $352 million, exceeding carbon sequestration projects in Kenya. With just 40,000 hectares of land, we can generate up to $8.3 billion yearly by producing 6.7 billion gallons of Croton-based biodiesels. By accelerating reforestation, crop yield will increase by 20%.

Problem: Shell Needs To Accelerate Their Reforestation Efforts

Importance of Carbon Sinks and Trees

Trees, specifically native/indigenous trees, are the most important infrastructure for ecosystems and for protection against climate change. Trees not only balance the amount of carbon emissions in the atmosphere they are also paramount for maintaining structure, moisture, and distributing nutrients in the soil. Thus, when Kenyans deforest to make space for new farms and other infrastructure, all this stability is removed, there is no longer protection or nutrition for the ecosystem and it dies. These soil issues worsen so farmers need new, better land to grow crops and deforest more, creating a negative feedback loop:

• The initial action of deforestation disrupts the stability of the ecosystem.
• This disruption leads to soil issues, which worsen over time.
• The worsening soil issues force farmers to seek new land for farming.
• The need for new land drives further deforestation.
• Climate change consequences are aggravated and display the issues of drought, disease, and heat we see today especially badly in Sub-Saharan African countries

Insight: Deforestation and enhanced effects of climate change are hitting Makueni harder than any existing solutions are helping.

More data about Makueni’s geographical/environmental and political state can be viewed in the following document: