Here we are, at another Bitcoin halving. The crypto community is buzzing with speculations and analyses about potential price movements and market dynamics. Recent unprecedented occurrences SHOULD challenge traditional views on Bitcoin's price action around Halving events. In all that new activity, though, some (actively or passively) skip the opportunity to evaluate the widely accepted norms. People are so wrapped in these “universal truths” that they are blinded and fail to see the forest for the trees.
Historically, Bitcoin's all-time highs (ATHs) have occurred after halving events, a pattern many attributed to the reduced supply and consistent or increasing demand. Above we can observe this pattern. Each ATH created after a halving was not broken until after the next halving.
However, this pattern has seen a significant deviation, with an ATH being broken before a halving for the first time. IMO this should ignite discussions about the validity of the common belief that “Halvings intrinsically lead to price peaks due to supply cuts” but instead I see talk about institutional investment, maturing markets, lengthening cycles etc. This deviation begs the question: are our foundational assumptions about Bitcoin's price action around the four-year halving cycle too rigid?
A key element on the chart that gets little mention is the duration of time between an ATH and ATH breaks progressively gets shorter making that ATH break closer to the halving. If price action patterns are revolving around this relatively fixed systematic supply reduction schedule, what is this effect?
Cycle analyses using advanced techniques like Fourier and spectral analysis show that Bitcoin's price actions follow a distinct cycle independent of the halving events. The most correlated cycle to Bitcoin’s weekly price data lasts approximately 180 weeks (or 3.5 years) from bottom to top and back, contrasting with the proposed 4-year cycle based on Halvings.
This analysis also reveals an inconvenient truth: a cycle assumed to be four years (208 weeks), when closely scrutinized, isn't evident at all in the data. This suggests that the assumptions about halving impacts on price may be fundamentally flawed.
The misalignment between the detected price cycle presented earlier and the Halving schedule becomes increasingly evident as time moves forward in the image above. By plotting cycle peaks and Halving dates, it's clear that the time interval between each Halving and the subsequent cycle peak has been shortening suggesting that the market dynamics of Bitcoin are evolving more rapidly than its coded Halving events.
Seen above, the next 3.5-year price cycle peak is anticipated to occur later this year with a subsequent peak projected for early 2028.
